Complexity versus certainty in understanding species’ declines

Methods We used the breeding birds of the grassland to test the relationship between species declines and a suite of traits associated with decline (such as size, specialization and rarity, as well as distance to edge of a discontinuity, and edge of geographic range) in a stepwise regression with AICc values and bootstrapping via model averaging, followed by a refit procedure to obtain model-averaged parameter estimates. We used both provincial government and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) classifications of decline. We also modelled degree of decline in the Alberta and Saskatchewan grasslands, which differ in amount of habitat remaining, to test whether severity of decline was explained by the same traits as species decline/notdecline.